(BS)
The Reserve Bank of India is set to cut interest rates in August for the fourth meeting in a row, according to a Reuters poll of economists, a majority of whom said risks to their already-modest growth forecasts were skewed more to the downside. If the RBI does cut rates next month, it will be the most aggressive amongst dovish central banks in Asia. The last time the RBI delivered so many back-to-back cuts was after the global financial crisis over a decade ago, when most major central banks went on a cutting spree to revive economic growth.
Almost 80 per cent of 66 economists in the July 17-24 poll expected the RBI to cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent at the Aug. 7 meeting. Three respondents predicted a 50 basis points cut and the remaining 10 forecast policy on hold. “It is baked in the cake. They are going to cut rates in August and again later, mainly due to low growth and weak inflation,” said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.
India’s inflation has remained below the central bank’s medium-term target of 4 per cent for almost a year and is not expected to rise significantly above that until at least 2021. The poll’s findings support RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’ recent comments about the central bank’s accommodative stance and suggests further easing.
