(FE)
The Economic Survey released on Monday, January 31st forecasts an 8 per cent to 8.5 per cent growth in FY23. This is on top of an expected 9.2 per cent growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year (FY22). There is an air of anticipation on what the Union budget will deliver this time. The officials from the finance minister making a presentation of the Economic survey, relied to a large extent on the high frequency indicators such as e-way bill collections and others to showcase an economy that was not just on a recovery path but also slightly better already than the pre-pandemic level.
But then, there are new pressure points that will need to be dealt with – inflation is high. The consumer price index (CPI) or the retail inflation is at a high 5.6 per cent and the wholesale price index stuck for sometime in the double digit zone (13.6 per cent). While the principal economic advisor Sanjeev Sanyal and V Anantha Nageswaran, the new chief economic advisor talk of an imported inflation (linked to the rising crude oil prices), the growth forecasts for next year are based on assumption of oil prices reducing to around $ 70 – 75 to a barrel from around $ 90 at the moment. Experts who have studied the numbers also estimate that the tax buoyancy of 2 this year may not be sustainable next year. Add to all of this, economists have also been pointing to stressful signs of polarization of wealth taking place with wealthy getting wealthier and the poor, vulnerable and those at the bottom-end of the income curve, as it were, under increasing stress.
