(FE)
Even though it is dicey to consider any prediction about monsoon at this juncture as final, there is no doubt the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that India will see a ‘normal’ monsoon this year, will certainly bring a sense of relief for the agriculture sector, especially due to absence of any sign of a major boost in other areas of the economy.
The country is expected to witness good distribution of rainfall across the country with the projection of “96 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA)” – rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent is considered as ‘normal’— and this will also help Reserve Bank of India (RBI) manage inflation within the stipulated range.
The RBI in its latest monetary policy outlook earlier this month said: “Since the February bi-monthly monetary policy statement, inflation has been quiescent. Headline CPI inflation is set to undershoot the target of 5.0 per cent for Q4 of 2016-17 in view of the sub-4 per cent readings for January and February. For 2017-18, inflation is projected to average 4.5 per cent in the first half of the year and 5 per cent in the second half.”
