India has recorded its weakest start to the southwest monsoon in 17 years, with rainfall in June standing 42% below normal, raising concerns over water availability, agriculture and food production. Weather experts attribute the poor performance primarily to the strengthening El Nino phenomenon, which is expected to continue suppressing monsoon activity through much of July despite the possibility of brief spells of revival.
The rainfall deficit has left 76% of the country under “deficient” or “large deficient” rainfall categories. Reservoir levels have also dropped sharply, with the nation’s 166 major reservoirs holding only 26% of their total storage capacity as of June 25. Key reservoirs such as Indira Sagar, Nagarjuna Sagar and Tehri are reporting critically low water levels.
Scientists warn that the current monsoon pattern bears similarities to the severe drought year of 2009, when June rainfall was 47% below normal and seasonal rainfall eventually finished 22% below average. Former Earth Sciences Secretary Madhavan Rajeevan said weak June rainfall during an El Nino year is an early warning sign, noting that any improvement in July is likely to be limited.
Another worrying factor is the complete absence of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal throughout June. Such systems typically trigger widespread rainfall across central and northern India, and meteorologists say at least one would normally have developed by this stage of the season.
The Union Agriculture Ministry has identified 315 districts as vulnerable to deficient rainfall, including 111 high-priority districts with limited irrigation coverage. States including Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh are among the worst affected.
Despite the weak monsoon, the government has assured that buffer stocks of rice and wheat remain adequate. Experts, meanwhile, stress that rainfall during July and August will ultimately determine crop sowing, agricultural output and the overall impact of El Nino on India’s farm economy.
