India’s monsoon may face significant challenges in 2026 as a developing El Nino event strengthens in the Pacific Ocean while the Indian Ocean remains neutral, depriving the country of a key climatic safeguard that helped offset similar threats in the past.
Climate experts often point to 1997 as an example of how the Indian Ocean can protect India’s monsoon. That year witnessed one of the strongest El Nino events on record, which typically weakens rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Despite widespread fears of drought, India received rainfall that was 2% above normal. Scientists later concluded that a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) played a crucial role in countering El Nino’s adverse effects.
The IOD refers to a temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. During a positive IOD phase, warmer waters near East Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia help direct moisture-rich winds toward India, strengthening monsoon rains. This phenomenon can offset the rainfall-suppressing impact of El Nino.
However, the situation in 2026 appears different. As of May 24, the IOD index stood at minus 0.34 degrees Celsius, indicating neutral conditions. Most climate models suggest that the IOD is likely to remain neutral throughout the monsoon season, with any positive phase expected only after winter, well beyond the critical June-to-September rainfall period.
Historical records show that nearly 60% of El Nino years between 1951 and 2022 resulted in below-average monsoon rainfall in India. Another notable comparison is 2015, when a positive IOD existed but was too weak to counter a strong El Nino, leading to deficient rainfall and agricultural losses.
With no significant support from the Indian Ocean this year, meteorologists are closely monitoring the developing El Nino. Its impact could influence agricultural output, water availability, food prices, and the overall economy, particularly during the crucial crop-growing season.
