(Financial Express)
Power utilities are expected to deliver robust earnings in the final quarter of FY25, driven by growth in regulated equity from capacity expansions, new transmission lines, rising power demand, and sustained volume growth in the short‑term market, analysts stated.
Contributions from the solar EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) segment and increased rooftop installations are also likely to bolster earnings.
“We retain our positive outlook on NTPC, driven by increased regulated equity from addition in thermal capacity. We are also positive on CESC and NLC given the strategic shift towards renewable energy for the former and expanding project portfolio for the latter,” said Elara Capital in its quarterly preview.
State‑owned NTPC commissioned around 473 MW of solar capacity in Q4 and plans to increase its thermal capacity by 26 GW by FY32, in line with the government’s goal to add 80 GW of thermal power capacity by then to meet rising electricity demand.“Regulated equity for the company at a consolidated level stands at Rs 105,800 crore, which is anticipated to grow at a double‑digit rate in the near term, driven by projects under implementation. NTPC earns an assured return on its regulated assets.
We expect a healthy Q4 for NTPC, with revenue and profit after tax (PAT) set to rise 6% and 4%, respectively, led by increase in regulated equity,” Elara Capital said.
Electricity generation rebounded in Q4 FY25 with the onset of summer and a rise in peak demand. Total output reached 453 billion units, marking a 5.3% year‑on‑year increase, following a 6.3% gain in Q4 FY24. Generation climbed 2.5% to 149 billion units in January, accelerated 7% to 143 billion units in February, and rose 6.5% to 161 billion units in March.
Elara Capital expects regulated equity at Power Grid Corporation of India to increase to Rs 89,600 crore in Q4 FY25, driven by the commissioning of new transmission lines and substations, including the strategically important Leh transmission project. The brokerage forecasts the company’s profit after tax will grow 3% year‑on‑year.
Private‑sector majors are also poised for a strong quarter. Tata Power’s solar EPC business should drive a 5% rise in revenue and a 9% increase in PAT. “JSW Energy is set to post a healthy quarter led by robust generation, improved hydro generation and incremental contribution from Ind-Barath,” analysts at Elara said. The brokerage predicts JSW Energy’s revenue and PAT will increase 6% and 3%, respectively.
State‑owned NHPC will benefit from the commissioning of three Parbati‑II hydro units (800 MW) and higher hydropower output, with analysts forecasting revenue and PAT growth of 9% and 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, Coal India’s 1.7% year‑on‑year production decline in Q4 may lead to a 2% drop in revenue, although PAT is expected to rise 2% in Q4FY25 compared to last year.
