KhabarIndia-Data Owls India exit poll shows the Modi-Yogi combo proved to be too hot for Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav as the latter failed to cross 100 seats mark despite high euphoric election campaign. BJP all set to create history with two continuous term government, while BSP and Congress seems to be completely evaporated from the most populous state of India.
What can be termed as father of all battles before 2024 war, as per Exit Poll of Khabarindia.in- Data Owls India, BJP is all set to sweep Uttar Pradesh Assembly election 2022 again with 296 seats, while main opposition Samajwadi party will be limited to just 87 seats. At the same time other crucial players like Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress will be completed decimated in the assembly election with 13 and 4 seats respectively.
Which Factors Propelled BJP Seats?
- Free distribution of Ration including oil and dal remained to be the single most factor that has benefitted BJP in terms of seats. The gamble to create a new vote bank in the name of “Labharthi” seems playing a crucial role in BJP performance on ground.
- Schedule Cast votes proved to be decisive in this election and for the first time Jatav Voters left BSP in great numbers and also voted for BJP. Non Jatav dalit voters were again consolidated with BJP.
- Women voters’ love for PM Narendra Modi again proved to be the icing on the cake as women were the main beneficiary for all the welfare schemes right from Ujjwala Yojana, PM Awas Yojana, Pension Scheme, etc. Importantly women have voted in great numbers and in various phases they have surpassed men vote percentage by whooping 10%.
- Law and Order plank proved to be the real dark force in this election and people have made a decisive stand against opposition, especially SP as people were quite skeptical about situation in rural area during SP regime.
- 80:20 polarization and Ram Mandir also played an important role in galvanizing the hindu votes specially the Brahmin votes that seemed vulnerable at the start of this election.
- Focus by BJP during last 2 years on OBCs has paid rich dividend for the saffron party and it has helped the BJP to gain a lion’s share of OBC voters being the deciding factor, apart from the traditional loyal voters.
- CM Yogi Adityanath’s mass appeal and tough hindu leader has made it very easy for BJP to cross 250 mark and people seemed option less in front of him as the best suited CM face in the state.
What has gone against SP+?
- Akhilesh Yadav ran a fantastic campaign in the state but couldn’t zero-in on issues that will garner him votes like Tejasvi Yadav did in Bihar in the form of Employment Generation Promise.
- Old Pension Scheme also has huge sound on the ground but its conversion rate doesn’t seem that much.
- Inflation and price rise was a crucial factor in election but SP was not able to raise this issue on the ground with much uproar.
- Unemployment seems to have partially worked for SP that has helped it to double it’s 2017 tally of 47.
- BSP has also played spoil sport for SP in various seats, especially in UP East as three way contest helped BJP winning the seat.
- Farmers Protest and Jat Voters discontent has helped RLD to regain its lost turf but it was not enough to counter BJP’s Labharthi vote bank.
- The Non Yadav OBCs again shun SP, which was the deciding factor in UP for all the political parties.
Why was Mayawati’s BSP routed?
- Absence of Mayawati from campaign was the biggest dampener for BSP.
- For the first time Jatav Voters also made a decisive exit from the party.
- Non Jatav dalits have completely deserted the party.
- Muslim Voters also distanced themselves from the party as disintegration of core voters were quite visible on the ground.
Highlights of Khabarindia.in- Data Owls India Poll:
- BJP+ is likely to secure a thumping majority in UP Assembly.
- BJP contested Assembly election in alliance with the Apna Dal (S) and Nishad Party
- BJP alliance is likely to get 296 seats out of 403 seats in Uttar Pradesh Assembly.
- The BJP alliance will secure 43 per cent of the total votes polled in the seven phases of Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.
- SP alliance are likely to win 87 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly.
- Samajwadi Party is expected to win 73 seats in Uttar Pradesh Assembly.
- RLD is likely to get only 10-11 seats.
- SP alliance will have 28 per cent of total votes polled in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election.
- BSP to get just 13 per cent of total votes cast in Uttar Pradesh Assembly election.
- The BSP is likely to win13 seats in Uttar Pradesh Assembly.
- Congress to get just 4 seats.
